Las Cruces, New Mexico 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

109
FXUS64 KEPZ 061700
AFDEPZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso TX/Santa Teresa NM
1100 AM MDT Tue Oct 6 2026

...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER...

.KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1100 AM MDT Tue Oct 6 2026

 - Temperatures near normal through the weekend with lowland highs
   in the lower/mid 80s.

 - Mostly dry conditions through the week ahead, a much needed
   break after September`s heavy rain. A low chance of mountain
   showers and thunderstorms Wednesday and Thursday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1100 AM MDT Tue Oct 6 2026

A weak shortwave ridge hanging over New Mexico will give way to a
weak low hanging over Utah, pushing the deep subtropical moisture
south of the border further into Mexico today. Surface winds will
be light and variable as scant cloud cover will keep
precipitation chances at zero.

Once the low reaches New Mexico, it will slightly expand on
Wednesday and marginally raise precipitation chances in the area
mountains, though any rain that does fall will be minimal. Heading
into Thursday, the upper-level low moves deeper into West Texas
as a weak Rex Block pattern forms over the Four Corners. The
lowlands will stay dry, but moisture in the mountains will be
sufficient enough to start a few showers/storms Thursday
afternoon. Winds on Thursday will blow from the east at 8-12 mph.

The Rex Block is expected to weaken on Friday as the upper low moves
deeper into South Texas. With the exception of some spotty
thunderstorms in the Gila on Saturday, conditions for Friday and
Saturday will be mainly dry. On Sunday, both the GFS and ECMWF
have a Pacific trough moving into the western United States,
increasing rain chances for the western part of our region.

Sunday is also when both models begin to diverge. The latest GFS
run has the trough pull in what would be Simon, drenching southern
California on Monday before advecting its moisture into our
region. The latest ECMWF run does not have Simon form in its
latest model run, but it still has moisture advected into our
region from the Gulf of California early next week. As of now, it
is too soon to tell which track (if either) will win out, but we
will keep watch.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1100 AM MDT Tue Oct 6 2026

VFR conditions expected for the entire observation period. With the
exception of some clouds lingering near the border, ceilings will be
unlimited through tonight at all four TAF sites. Winds will be light
and variable.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1100 AM MDT Tue Oct 6 2026

The region continues to dry out from last week`s rain, though light
winds and Min RH values above 30% across the region will keep
fire weather conditions low today. A slight chance of rain is
possible in the area mountains both Wednesday and Thursday, but
the lowlands will remain generally dry into the weekend.
Ventilation rates will range from Poor to Fair on Tuesday and
Wednesday before rising to Good on Thursday as transport winds
from the east increase to 10-15 mph.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                  62  86  63  84 /   0   0   0   0
Sierra Blanca            59  81  59  79 /   0   0   0  10
Las Cruces               58  82  59  81 /   0   0   0   0
Alamogordo               59  81  58  79 /   0   0  10  10
Cloudcroft               44  62  43  58 /   0  10  10  20
Truth or Consequences    56  81  57  79 /   0   0  10   0
Silver City              55  78  55  75 /   0  10  10  10
Deming                   58  84  60  83 /   0   0   0   0
Lordsburg                58  83  60  82 /   0   0   0   0
West El Paso Metro       63  85  64  84 /   0   0   0   0
Dell City                58  84  60  82 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Hancock             64  89  64  88 /   0   0   0  10
Loma Linda               59  79  59  76 /   0   0   0  10
Fabens                   62  88  63  86 /   0   0   0  10
Santa Teresa             60  84  62  83 /   0   0   0   0
White Sands HQ           63  85  63  83 /   0   0   0   0
Jornada Range            58  83  59  82 /   0   0   0   0
Hatch                    59  86  59  84 /   0   0   0   0
Columbus                 60  85  61  85 /   0   0   0   0
Orogrande                58  82  59  81 /   0   0   0   0
Mayhill                  49  73  49  69 /   0  10  10  20
Mescalero                49  74  49  70 /   0  10  10  20
Timberon                 48  69  48  66 /   0   0  10  20
Winston                  49  75  50  72 /   0   0  10  10
Hillsboro                59  81  59  78 /   0   0  10  10
Spaceport                56  82  56  80 /   0   0   0   0
Lake Roberts             49  78  49  75 /   0  10  20  20
Hurley                   54  80  55  78 /   0   0  10   0
Cliff                    56  85  56  83 /   0  10  10  10
Mule Creek               55  82  54  80 /   0   0  10  10
Faywood                  56  79  57  77 /   0   0  10   0
Animas                   59  85  60  84 /   0   0   0   0
Hachita                  58  83  58  82 /   0   0   0   0
Antelope Wells           60  83  60  83 /   0   0   0   0
Cloverdale               58  80  58  79 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&

$$

FORECASTER...41-Zotter