Las Cruces, New Mexico 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

787
FXUS64 KEPZ 041127
AFDEPZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso TX/Santa Teresa NM
527 AM MDT Mon May 4 2026

...New AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 530 AM MDT Mon May 4 2026

 - Breezy west winds Monday and Tuesday. Isolated light rain
   showers across western New Mexico on Tuesday.

 - Warmer weather late this week. Temperatures becoming above
   normal this weekend with lowland highs in the lower 90s.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1000 PM MDT Sun May 3 2026

A cutoff low will continue to spin over central California
heading into Monday. Locally, this low will continue to push in a
subtropical tap keeping cloudy skies overhead on Monday. In
addition, breezy conditions of 15-25 mph out of the west are
expected Monday afternoon. Rain chances look to start late Monday
night and very early Tuesday morning for the Gila region and
western New Mexico. Rain chances will spread north and eastward
heading into Tuesday. Best chances for rain look to be the area
mountains with only some lowland locations in New Mexico having
slight chances of rain that afternoon. In addition to the rain,
Tuesday will be another breezy day. Winds will be generally 15-25
mph again, but may see slightly stronger wind speeds compared to
Monday.

By Wednesday, expect dry conditions with some afternoon
breeziness. Models agree on pinching off an area of low pressure
over the northern Baja but disagreements in the GFS and EC
solutions on Thursday with what models will do with this low
pressure system. The GFS has the low cutoff from the main flow and
spinning over northwestern Mexico bringing the area some rain
chances. Meanwhile, the EC sweeps the low pressure off back into
the main flow and keeps us dry Thursday. Friday looks dry and
quiet with northwest flow aloft.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 530 AM MDT Mon May 4 2026

VMC through forecast period under west flow aloft. Surface winds
beginning 240-270 at 10 to 15 knots this morning, then prevailing
WSW 15G25KT this afternoon. Peak gusts up to 30 knots. Skies
SCT120 BKN200.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 530 AM MDT Mon May 4 2026

Drier and breezy conditions today leading to Elevated fire
weather. Min RH 15 to 25% with WSW winds 15 to 25 mph allowing for
Excellent ventilation. Smoke transport due east. Breezy winds
again on Tuesday, with gusts up to 40 mph over the high terrain.
Isolated light rain showers across Southwest New Mexico, with new
rain amounts 0.05-0.15 over GNF.

No significant winds expected late this week as conditions become
warmer and drier. ERCs have decreased dramatically after recent
rains, which will decrease fire danger this week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                  63  80  56  79 /  10   0   0   0
Sierra Blanca            58  76  52  75 /   0   0   0   0
Las Cruces               54  75  46  75 /  10  10   0   0
Alamogordo               58  74  47  75 /  10  20   0   0
Cloudcroft               40  50  34  52 /  10  20   0   0
Truth or Consequences    56  73  48  75 /  10  30   0   0
Silver City              46  64  38  66 /  20  50   0   0
Deming                   53  77  45  76 /  10  30   0   0
Lordsburg                50  73  41  73 /  20  20   0   0
West El Paso Metro       63  77  56  78 /  10   0   0   0
Dell City                59  79  53  78 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Hancock             63  84  56  83 /   0   0   0   0
Loma Linda               58  71  50  71 /   0   0   0   0
Fabens                   62  81  55  80 /   0   0   0   0
Santa Teresa             58  76  50  76 /  10  10   0   0
White Sands HQ           62  76  54  76 /  10  10   0   0
Jornada Range            54  74  45  75 /  10  20   0   0
Hatch                    55  77  46  78 /  10  20   0   0
Columbus                 56  79  50  78 /  10  10   0   0
Orogrande                58  74  49  74 /  10  10   0   0
Mayhill                  48  64  41  65 /  10  20   0   0
Mescalero                45  61  38  63 /  10  30   0   0
Timberon                 45  60  38  61 /  10  10   0   0
Winston                  42  65  33  68 /  20  50   0  10
Hillsboro                53  71  43  73 /  10  30   0   0
Spaceport                52  73  41  75 /  10  20   0   0
Lake Roberts             41  64  33  66 /  20  50   0   0
Hurley                   46  69  38  69 /  20  40   0   0
Cliff                    48  71  38  72 /  30  50   0   0
Mule Creek               45  66  36  69 /  40  60  10   0
Faywood                  49  68  40  69 /  10  30   0   0
Animas                   51  74  43  74 /  10  20   0   0
Hachita                  50  73  43  74 /  10  30   0   0
Antelope Wells           53  74  45  75 /  10  20   0   0
Cloverdale               51  68  42  69 /  10  20   0   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&

$$

FORECASTER...30-Dennhardt